In eth front of our very eyes, the most peculiar bear market in the annals of financial history is playing out. Even while the death spirals and Chapter 11 bankruptcies that sparked it appeared to come out of nowhere, it appears that most individuals were prepared for it. [Case in point:]
In any case, the value of each coin is currently negative. The market ought to be characterized by fear, uncertainty, and doubt. This is not the case for the two cryptocurrencies that have the largest market share. Despite the fact that the circumstances surrounding each market are unique, there is evidence of unshakeable faith in both of them. It is without a doubt the most peculiar bear market in the annals of financial history.
The cryptocurrency bear market does not appear to be able to dampen the spirits of long-term investors in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The author of the most current edition of The Wolf Den makes use of data from Glassnode and Intotheblock to explain how the aforementioned statement is accurate in that issue.
Bitcoin Faces Off Against the Bear
According to the newsletter, “on-chain evidence from Glassnode implies that there has been no major drop in the conviction of long term believers.” This information was gleaned from the blockchain.
In order to demonstrate this, The Wolf Den looks at something called the “Dormancy Metric.” This number “tracks the average age of every Bitcoin that moves, as computed by the date it was mined.” Those ages are determined by the date the Bitcoin was mined. One way to gauge the sentiment of long-term holders is to look at the typical age of the coins that are currently in circulation across the market.
The coins that are currently “floating about the market” are not very old, as perceptive readers may have inferred. As a matter of fact, their ages are “at multi-year lows.” The dormancy number is much lower than expected. This is comparable to previous bear markets, which also had relatively low dormancy levels. The following examples of glassnode analysis can be found in the newsletter:
“The decrease in longevity measurements is really a positive sign for the longer-term, since it suggests that old coins are immobile, and dropping values have no psychological influence on this cohort’s conviction,”
When we take a step back and examine the situation as a whole, we can see that everything looks to be where it should be. A prudent course of action to take under volatile market conditions.
ETH Merge Is Upon Us
The information for this section comes from IntoTheBlock, which is used by The Wolf Den. Before continuing, the author will first define the series of occurrences that make up the mythical “merge.” On September 6th, “the Bellatrix upgrade occurs on the Beacon chain,” which is the most important thing to remember. Then, beginning on the 10th and continuing until the 20th of September, “the official transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) will take place.” The merger is scheduled to take place on September 15th, according to the Ethereum Foundation.
In order to evaluate the state of the Ethereum network during this bear market, The Wolf Den looked into “netflows onto controlled exchanges.” It is encouraging to see that overall, more ETH is leaving exchanges than is coming into them. It is typically an indication that people are not trying to sell their belongings at the present time. On the other hand, given the impending merger and the ongoing bear market, it’s possible that it could have other connotations.
They can be “bullish on the merge because users feel the merge will be successful and are accumulating ETH for potential price movement,” on the one hand. But on the other hand, people might be “bearish on the merge because users believe the merge will fail.” On the other side, it’s possible that they’re preparing for a Proof-of-Work hard fork in Ethereum. In the event that this occurs, “any ETH that is retained in wallets can claim ETHW at a 1:1 ratio,” and traders may be making plans to claim the greatest amount of ETHW possible.
The current bear market has many unique facets, and this is another one of them. “Recently, the magnitude of an average inflow transaction has been more than that of an equivalent outflow transaction.” According to The Wolf Den, this should not be a reason for concern because “netflows onto centralized exchanges” are quite minimal. This is a more convincing sign than any other. Nevertheless, such a significant increase in transaction volume might indicate the existence of anything of value. “The opinion of larger traders and institutional investors about the merger is becoming increasingly uncertain.”
In any event, long-term Bitcoin and Ethereum holders remain steadfast despite the bear market’s circumstances. For quite different reasons.